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   What is a SmartEstimate?
 
   Many investors use the simple average of analyst estimates, often referred to as the mean, to predict a stock's earnings or revenue. Unfortunately, the mean is flawed. It places equal weight on each analyst's estimate, regardless of whether the estimate was issued two or 200 days ago, or whether the analyst is more—or less—accurate in covering a stock.

StarMine goes further 1) by calculating how accurate an analyst is and how timely his or her estimates are and 2) by putting more weight on the most timely estimates from the most accurate analysts. As a result, StarMine's SmartEstimates are more accurate than the mean. Thus, if the earnings mean predicts $1.00 and the SmartEstimate predicts $1.10, we expect other analysts to revise towards $1.10 or the company to report an earnings surprise.

StarMine's SmartEstimates also utilize the detection of a recent RevisionCluster when one has occurred.

See also:
What is a RevisionCluster?
How does StarMine predict surprises, and how can I profit from them?



See glossary for: RevisionCluster


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